The plan is operating at 84.2% MLR across 100,000 covered lives, with 1% of members driving ~$142M of spend. Disciplined execution against the six-lever opportunity stack moves MLR to 69.9%, generating $101M of net EBITDA contribution and preserving competitive premium positioning for the next renewal cycle.
CFO Summary
$113.4M addressable Β· 8.1x ROI
Program investment of $12.4M unlocks $113.4M in combined cost avoidance and revenue uplift β $24.8M from Chronic Disease Risk Stratification recapture and $14.2M from Quality Performance Metrics. Net EBITDA contribution of $101M translates to a PMPM impact of $84.17.
Medical Director Summary
Clinical levers are real and proximate
3,120 avoidable admissions and 18,400 avoidable ER visits represent $43.8M of addressable utilization. Registry-based management of diabetes (14,200), CHF (3,400) and COPD (4,600) cohorts, paired with oncology and dialysis stewardship, drives the clinical case for the financial plan.
Strategic Priorities β Next 4 Quarters
Sequenced for measurable EBITDA impact
Q1
Top 1% Complex Care Activation
Embed care managers across the $142M top-cost cohort. Target $28.6M.
Q1
Risk Adjustment Recapture Sprint
Close suspected chronic disease conditions across the registry. Target $24.8M.
Q2
Avoidable Admit & ER Program
Post-discharge transitions + ED diversion. Target $19.4M.
Close care gaps across diabetes, CHF, COPD. Target $14.2M.
Q4
High-Performance Network Steerage
Steer to top-quartile providers. Target $9.6M.
Total Opportunity
$113.4M
Program Investment
$12.4M
Net EBITDA Contribution
$101M
Estimated Annual ROI
8.1x
Projections based on simulated commercial & government-insured book economics. RAFIQ Health is a population health intelligence platform; outcomes depend on operational execution and contracting structure.